Can the Distributional Impacts of Macroeconomic Shocks be Predicted? A Comparison of the Performance of Macro-Micro Models with Historical Data for Brazil

What was the impact of Brazil's 1998-99 currency crisis-which resulted in a change of exchange rate regime and a large real devaluation-on the occupational structure of the labor force and the distribution of incomes? Would it have been possib...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Leite, Phillippe George, Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., Picchetti, Paulo
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2013
Subjects:	ACCELERATOR AGGREGATE DEMAND AGGREGATE GROWTH AGGREGATE SUPPLY AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE AVERAGE ANNUAL AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE RESULTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE SHEETS BANK DEPOSITS BONDS CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANKS CPI CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS CROSS-SECTION DATA CURRENCY CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT DEBT DEFLATION DEFLATORS DEMAND FOR MONEY DEMAND FUNCTIONS DEVALUATION DEVELOPED ECONOMIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DISPOSABLE INCOME DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DOMESTIC PRICES DYNAMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ELASTICITIES EMERGING MARKETS ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM WAGE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR DEMAND FACTOR MARKETS FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL POLICY FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN EXCHANGE GDP GDP DEFLATOR GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GNP GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HISTORICAL DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD LEVEL HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPORTS INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOMES INCREASE POVERTY INDIVIDUAL INCOMES INEQUALITY INFLATION INFLATION TARGETING INFORMAL SECTOR INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LOCAL CURRENCY MACRO MODELS MACRO STABILITY MACROECONOMIC MODELS MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MARGINAL PRODUCT MARGINAL PRODUCTS MONETARY POLICY MONETARY SHOCKS MPS MULTIPLIERS NEGATIVE IMPACT NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE NOMINAL RATE POLICY CHANGES POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY PACKAGE POLICY RESEARCH PRIMARY SURPLUS PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SECTOR PRODUCT MARKETS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PUBLIC SECTOR RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS REAL APPRECIATION REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL GROWTH REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATES REAL WAGES REAL_GROWTH RELATIVE PRICES RISK PREMIUM SECTORAL COMPOSITION SERIES DATA SKILL LEVEL SKILL WORKERS SKILLED WORKERS SUPPLY CURVES TAX REVENUES TIME SERIES TOTAL OUTPUT TRANSMISSION MECHANISM TRANSMISSION MECHANISMS UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WAGE RATES WAGES WEALTH WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS INCOME LEVELS INTEREST PAYMENTS LABOR SUPPLY MARKET EQUILIBRIUM MARKET PARTICIPANTS PER CAPITA INCOME REAL INTEREST RATE STOCKS URBAN AREAS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/05/4972852/can-distributional-impacts-macroeconomic-shocks-predicted-comparison-performance-macro-micro-models-historical-data-brazil http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14030