External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova
The economy of Moldova, which has one of the lowest levels of gross national income per capita in the World Bank Europe and Central Asia region, is strongly linked to the outside world, especially to the neighboring countries of the European Union...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2013
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17361892/external-shocks-fiscal-policy-income-distribution-alternative-scenarios-moldova http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13168 |
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okr-10986-13168 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
| topic |
ACCOUNTING ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL ADVERSE SHOCKS AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH ASSETS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASE YEAR BRAIN DRAIN BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNTS CAPITAL GAINS CAPITAL STOCKS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY MARKETS COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMPTION DECISIONS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNTS DEBT DEMAND CURVE DEMAND CURVES DEMOGRAPHIC DEPRECIATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIRECT INVESTMENT DISPOSABLE INCOME DOMESTIC BORROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC DEMANDS DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICE DOMESTIC PRICE LEVELS DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM PRICES EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SHARE EXPORT VOLUMES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTERNAL TRADE FACTOR DEMAND FACTOR MARKETS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FIXED INVESTMENT FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DEBTS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN GOVERNMENT FOREIGN INTEREST FOREIGN INTERESTS FOREIGN MARKETS FOREIGN TRADE FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FULL EMPLOYMENT FUNCTIONAL FORMS FUTURE GROWTH GDP GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GINI COEFFICIENT GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT DEBTS GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS NATIONAL INCOME GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOME MARKET HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS IMPACT OF SHOCKS IMPORT IMPORT PRICES IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROWTH INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS INTEREST PAYMENTS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL PRICES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DEMANDS INVESTMENT FINANCING INVESTMENT SPENDING LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE GROWTH LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICES MARKET SHARE MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MOBILE PHONE MOBILE PHONES MONETARY FUND NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT OUTPUTS PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLICY RESPONSES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGES PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE LEVELS PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SAVINGS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES PROFIT MAXIMIZATION PUBLIC INVESTMENT RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH RAPID GROWTH REAL ESTATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GROWTH RATES REAL WAGES REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT RELATIVE PRICES REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RETURN SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SMALL COUNTRY SOCIAL BENEFITS SOCIAL PROTECTION STOCK CHANGE STRONG DEMAND STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUPPLIERS SUPPLY CURVE SUPPLY CURVES SUPPLY SIDE SURPLUS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TAX TAX CODE TAX POLICY TAX RATES TAX REVENUES TELECOMMUNICATIONS TELEPHONE LINES TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL REVENUE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE STATISTICS TRADING TRADING PARTNERS TRANSACTION TRANSACTION COSTS TRUST FUND UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNSKILLED LABOR UPWARD PRESSURE VALUE ADDED VOLATILITY WAGE GROWTH WAGE INCREASES WAGES WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS WORLD PRICES |
| spellingShingle |
ACCOUNTING ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL ADVERSE SHOCKS AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH ASSETS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASE YEAR BRAIN DRAIN BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNTS CAPITAL GAINS CAPITAL STOCKS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY MARKETS COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMPTION DECISIONS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNTS DEBT DEMAND CURVE DEMAND CURVES DEMOGRAPHIC DEPRECIATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIRECT INVESTMENT DISPOSABLE INCOME DOMESTIC BORROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC DEMANDS DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICE DOMESTIC PRICE LEVELS DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM PRICES EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SHARE EXPORT VOLUMES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTERNAL TRADE FACTOR DEMAND FACTOR MARKETS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FIXED INVESTMENT FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DEBTS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN GOVERNMENT FOREIGN INTEREST FOREIGN INTERESTS FOREIGN MARKETS FOREIGN TRADE FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FULL EMPLOYMENT FUNCTIONAL FORMS FUTURE GROWTH GDP GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GINI COEFFICIENT GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT DEBTS GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS NATIONAL INCOME GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOME MARKET HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS IMPACT OF SHOCKS IMPORT IMPORT PRICES IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROWTH INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS INTEREST PAYMENTS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL PRICES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DEMANDS INVESTMENT FINANCING INVESTMENT SPENDING LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE GROWTH LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICES MARKET SHARE MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MOBILE PHONE MOBILE PHONES MONETARY FUND NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT OUTPUTS PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLICY RESPONSES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGES PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE LEVELS PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SAVINGS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES PROFIT MAXIMIZATION PUBLIC INVESTMENT RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH RAPID GROWTH REAL ESTATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GROWTH RATES REAL WAGES REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT RELATIVE PRICES REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RETURN SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SMALL COUNTRY SOCIAL BENEFITS SOCIAL PROTECTION STOCK CHANGE STRONG DEMAND STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUPPLIERS SUPPLY CURVE SUPPLY CURVES SUPPLY SIDE SURPLUS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TAX TAX CODE TAX POLICY TAX RATES TAX REVENUES TELECOMMUNICATIONS TELEPHONE LINES TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL REVENUE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE STATISTICS TRADING TRADING PARTNERS TRANSACTION TRANSACTION COSTS TRUST FUND UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNSKILLED LABOR UPWARD PRESSURE VALUE ADDED VOLATILITY WAGE GROWTH WAGE INCREASES WAGES WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS WORLD PRICES Kinnunen, Jouko Lofgren, Hans Sulla, Victor Merotto, Dino External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Moldova |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6365 |
| description |
The economy of Moldova, which has one of
the lowest levels of gross national income per capita in the
World Bank Europe and Central Asia region, is strongly
linked to the outside world, especially to the neighboring
countries of the European Union and the Commonwealth of
Independent States. This paper analyzes a set of scenarios
for Moldova up to 2020, defined to shed light on issues
related to an alternative future dominated by goods and
services exports as opposed to today's reliance on
worker remittances. The analysis is based on a Moldovan
version of MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goal
Simulations), a CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model
for country strategy analysis. In sum, the impact of
increased export demand and productivity growth is more
positive when these shocks are directed to manufacturing, a
sector more heavily linked to international trade, compared
with agriculture. Increased productivity in transport and
communications generates faster growth with widely diffused
benefits, reaching households in a relatively equitable
manner compared with foreign trade-induced growth. A
comparison between adverse shocks in two areas, higher
energy import prices, and lower remittances, designed to
have similar effects on gross domestic product, suggests
that a remittance shock leads to less of a poverty increase,
related to the fact that remittance-receiving households are
not highly vulnerable; among sectors, agriculture is most
vulnerable due to heavy energy reliance. Finally,
well-targeted transfer schemes may offer an effective tool
for diffusing the benefits of economic growth to the whole
population, perhaps also contributing to more general
acceptance of structural change. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Kinnunen, Jouko Lofgren, Hans Sulla, Victor Merotto, Dino |
| author_facet |
Kinnunen, Jouko Lofgren, Hans Sulla, Victor Merotto, Dino |
| author_sort |
Kinnunen, Jouko |
| title |
External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova |
| title_short |
External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova |
| title_full |
External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova |
| title_fullStr |
External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova |
| title_full_unstemmed |
External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova |
| title_sort |
external shocks, fiscal policy and income distribution : alternative scenarios for moldova |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2013 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17361892/external-shocks-fiscal-policy-income-distribution-alternative-scenarios-moldova http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13168 |
| _version_ |
1764422865286856704 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-131682021-04-23T14:03:07Z External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova Kinnunen, Jouko Lofgren, Hans Sulla, Victor Merotto, Dino ACCOUNTING ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL ADVERSE SHOCKS AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH ASSETS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASE YEAR BRAIN DRAIN BUDGET CONSTRAINT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ACCOUNTS CAPITAL GAINS CAPITAL STOCKS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY MARKETS COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMPTION DECISIONS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT CRISES CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNTS DEBT DEMAND CURVE DEMAND CURVES DEMOGRAPHIC DEPRECIATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY DIRECT INVESTMENT DISPOSABLE INCOME DOMESTIC BORROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC DEMANDS DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICE DOMESTIC PRICE LEVELS DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM PRICES EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SHARE EXPORT VOLUMES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS EXTERNAL TRADE FACTOR DEMAND FACTOR MARKETS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FIXED INVESTMENT FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DEBTS FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN GOVERNMENT FOREIGN INTEREST FOREIGN INTERESTS FOREIGN MARKETS FOREIGN TRADE FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT FULL EMPLOYMENT FUNCTIONAL FORMS FUTURE GROWTH GDP GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GINI COEFFICIENT GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT DEBTS GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS NATIONAL INCOME GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOME MARKET HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS IMPACT OF SHOCKS IMPORT IMPORT PRICES IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROWTH INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS INTEREST PAYMENTS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL PRICES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT DEMANDS INVESTMENT FINANCING INVESTMENT SPENDING LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE GROWTH LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICES MARKET SHARE MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MOBILE PHONE MOBILE PHONES MONETARY FUND NATIONAL INCOME OUTPUT OUTPUTS PENSIONS PERSONAL INCOME POLICY RESPONSES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGES PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE LEVELS PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SAVINGS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES PROFIT MAXIMIZATION PUBLIC INVESTMENT RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH RAPID GROWTH REAL ESTATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GROWTH RATES REAL WAGES REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT RELATIVE PRICES REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RETURN SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SMALL COUNTRY SOCIAL BENEFITS SOCIAL PROTECTION STOCK CHANGE STRONG DEMAND STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUPPLIERS SUPPLY CURVE SUPPLY CURVES SUPPLY SIDE SURPLUS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TAX TAX CODE TAX POLICY TAX RATES TAX REVENUES TELECOMMUNICATIONS TELEPHONE LINES TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL REVENUE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE STATISTICS TRADING TRADING PARTNERS TRANSACTION TRANSACTION COSTS TRUST FUND UNCERTAINTIES UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNSKILLED LABOR UPWARD PRESSURE VALUE ADDED VOLATILITY WAGE GROWTH WAGE INCREASES WAGES WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS WORLD PRICES The economy of Moldova, which has one of the lowest levels of gross national income per capita in the World Bank Europe and Central Asia region, is strongly linked to the outside world, especially to the neighboring countries of the European Union and the Commonwealth of Independent States. This paper analyzes a set of scenarios for Moldova up to 2020, defined to shed light on issues related to an alternative future dominated by goods and services exports as opposed to today's reliance on worker remittances. The analysis is based on a Moldovan version of MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations), a CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model for country strategy analysis. In sum, the impact of increased export demand and productivity growth is more positive when these shocks are directed to manufacturing, a sector more heavily linked to international trade, compared with agriculture. Increased productivity in transport and communications generates faster growth with widely diffused benefits, reaching households in a relatively equitable manner compared with foreign trade-induced growth. A comparison between adverse shocks in two areas, higher energy import prices, and lower remittances, designed to have similar effects on gross domestic product, suggests that a remittance shock leads to less of a poverty increase, related to the fact that remittance-receiving households are not highly vulnerable; among sectors, agriculture is most vulnerable due to heavy energy reliance. Finally, well-targeted transfer schemes may offer an effective tool for diffusing the benefits of economic growth to the whole population, perhaps also contributing to more general acceptance of structural change. 2013-04-11T20:21:32Z 2013-04-11T20:21:32Z 2013-02 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17361892/external-shocks-fiscal-policy-income-distribution-alternative-scenarios-moldova http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13168 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6365 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Europe and Central Asia Moldova |