The Republic of Ghana : Selected Policy Issues
Following the December 2010 start-up of the Jubilee Field, Ghana has begun receiving royalty and tax revenues from oil production. At peak production, Jubilee could generate over US$1 billion in annual revenues for Ghana, a figure that will constit...
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Format: | Policy Note |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Washington, DC
2012
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Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/06/16955017/ghana-selected-policy-issues http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11870 |
Summary: | Following the December 2010 start-up of
the Jubilee Field, Ghana has begun receiving royalty and tax
revenues from oil production. At peak production, Jubilee
could generate over US$1 billion in annual revenues for
Ghana, a figure that will constitute 3 percent of 2011
non-oil Gross Domestic Product, or GDP and 18 percent of
total government revenue. Recognizing the critical role oil
revenues will play in Ghana's economic development;
government is increasingly focused on generating short-term
and long-term forecasts of oil revenues as inputs to its
planning and policy-making. Oil revenue forecasts are needed
for budgeting, long-term and medium-term fiscal planning,
tax policy, and a broad set of petroleum and energy sector
policy decisions. The immediate focus is on predicting the
revenues that will flow from Jubilee itself; however, the
announcements of significant additional discoveries at
Mahogany Deep, Enyenra, Tweneboa, Teak, Sankofa, Dzata, and
Paradise suggest that long-term oil revenues could be
derived from multiple sources. Oil revenue forecasting is
not intrinsically difficult but attention to details is
important. For Ghana, the most challenging implementation
details will be the ones related to the start-up of oil
production at Jubilee. Price volatility is an ever-present
challenge to forecasters but there are accepted approaches
for taking this into account. However, the key to a
successful on-going revenue forecasting process is to
develop defined responsibilities and routines for
information sharing, consistent and realistic methods for
forecast calculation, and clear communication and
dissemination of assumptions and results. |
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