Demand Forecasting Errors

Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in th...

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Main Authors:	Mackie, Peter, Nellthorp, John, Laird, James
Format:	Brief
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012
Subjects:	AGGREGATION AREA BASE YEAR BUS BUS STOPS BUSES CAR OWNERSHIP CARS CONGESTION CONSTRUCTION COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEPENDENCY DESTINATION DRIVERS ECONOMIC APPRAISAL ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF DEMAND EXTRAPOLATION FARE LEVELS FARES FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTS FRAMEWORK FREIGHT FREIGHT TRAFFIC FUEL FUEL PRICE GDP GENERATED TRAFFIC GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS GROWTH POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE HIGHWAYS INCOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ROADS INTERFACE INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTERPOLATION JOURNEY LAND USE LIGHT RAIL ORIGIN PASSENGER PASSENGER VOLUMES PASSENGERS PEAK PERIODS PORTS PRIVATE ROAD TRAFFIC PUBLIC TRANSPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORT FARES PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE ROAD HAULAGE ROAD NETWORK ROAD TOLLS ROAD TRAFFIC ROADS ROUTE ROUTE CHOICE ROUTES SPEED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SURVEYING TRAFFIC TRAFFIC FLOW TRAFFIC FLOWS TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC PATTERNS TRAINS TRANSPORT TRANSPORT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT INVESTMENT TRANSPORT OPERATORS TRANSPORT POLICY TRANSPORT PROJECTS TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORT SERVICES TRANSPORT SYSTEM TRAVEL TIME TRAVEL TIMES TRAVELLERS TRUCKS VALUE OF TIME VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OWNERSHIP VEHICLES WALKING WALKING TIME
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6376813/demand-forecasting-errors http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11797

id	okr-10986-11797
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-117972021-04-23T14:02:57Z Demand Forecasting Errors Mackie, Peter Nellthorp, John Laird, James AGGREGATION AREA BASE YEAR BUS BUS STOPS BUSES CAR OWNERSHIP CARS CONGESTION CONSTRUCTION COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEPENDENCY DESTINATION DRIVERS ECONOMIC APPRAISAL ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF DEMAND EXTRAPOLATION FARE LEVELS FARES FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTS FRAMEWORK FREIGHT FREIGHT TRAFFIC FUEL FUEL PRICE GDP GENERATED TRAFFIC GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS GROWTH POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE HIGHWAYS INCOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ROADS INTERFACE INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTERPOLATION JOURNEY LAND USE LIGHT RAIL ORIGIN PASSENGER PASSENGER VOLUMES PASSENGERS PEAK PERIODS PORTS PRIVATE ROAD TRAFFIC PUBLIC TRANSPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORT FARES PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE ROAD HAULAGE ROAD NETWORK ROAD TOLLS ROAD TRAFFIC ROADS ROUTE ROUTE CHOICE ROUTES SPEED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SURVEYING TRAFFIC TRAFFIC FLOW TRAFFIC FLOWS TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC PATTERNS TRAINS TRANSPORT TRANSPORT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT INVESTMENT TRANSPORT OPERATORS TRANSPORT POLICY TRANSPORT PROJECTS TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORT SERVICES TRANSPORT SYSTEM TRAVEL TIME TRAVEL TIMES TRAVELLERS TRUCKS VALUE OF TIME VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OWNERSHIP VEHICLES WALKING WALKING TIME Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand forecasts (Section 1). Following that introductory section the error types are described in more detail: measurement error (Section 2), model specification error (Section 3) and External or Exogenous Errors (Section 4). The final section presents a discussion on how to manage demand forecasting errors (Section 5). 2012-08-13T16:03:13Z 2012-08-13T16:03:13Z 2005-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6376813/demand-forecasting-errors http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11797 English Transport Notes Series; No. TRN 12 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Brief Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English
topic	AGGREGATION AREA BASE YEAR BUS BUS STOPS BUSES CAR OWNERSHIP CARS CONGESTION CONSTRUCTION COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEPENDENCY DESTINATION DRIVERS ECONOMIC APPRAISAL ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF DEMAND EXTRAPOLATION FARE LEVELS FARES FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTS FRAMEWORK FREIGHT FREIGHT TRAFFIC FUEL FUEL PRICE GDP GENERATED TRAFFIC GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS GROWTH POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE HIGHWAYS INCOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ROADS INTERFACE INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTERPOLATION JOURNEY LAND USE LIGHT RAIL ORIGIN PASSENGER PASSENGER VOLUMES PASSENGERS PEAK PERIODS PORTS PRIVATE ROAD TRAFFIC PUBLIC TRANSPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORT FARES PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE ROAD HAULAGE ROAD NETWORK ROAD TOLLS ROAD TRAFFIC ROADS ROUTE ROUTE CHOICE ROUTES SPEED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SURVEYING TRAFFIC TRAFFIC FLOW TRAFFIC FLOWS TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC PATTERNS TRAINS TRANSPORT TRANSPORT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT INVESTMENT TRANSPORT OPERATORS TRANSPORT POLICY TRANSPORT PROJECTS TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORT SERVICES TRANSPORT SYSTEM TRAVEL TIME TRAVEL TIMES TRAVELLERS TRUCKS VALUE OF TIME VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OWNERSHIP VEHICLES WALKING WALKING TIME
spellingShingle	AGGREGATION AREA BASE YEAR BUS BUS STOPS BUSES CAR OWNERSHIP CARS CONGESTION CONSTRUCTION COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEPENDENCY DESTINATION DRIVERS ECONOMIC APPRAISAL ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF DEMAND EXTRAPOLATION FARE LEVELS FARES FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTS FRAMEWORK FREIGHT FREIGHT TRAFFIC FUEL FUEL PRICE GDP GENERATED TRAFFIC GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS GROWTH POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE HIGHWAYS INCOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ROADS INTERFACE INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTERPOLATION JOURNEY LAND USE LIGHT RAIL ORIGIN PASSENGER PASSENGER VOLUMES PASSENGERS PEAK PERIODS PORTS PRIVATE ROAD TRAFFIC PUBLIC TRANSPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORT FARES PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE ROAD HAULAGE ROAD NETWORK ROAD TOLLS ROAD TRAFFIC ROADS ROUTE ROUTE CHOICE ROUTES SPEED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SURVEYING TRAFFIC TRAFFIC FLOW TRAFFIC FLOWS TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC PATTERNS TRAINS TRANSPORT TRANSPORT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT INVESTMENT TRANSPORT OPERATORS TRANSPORT POLICY TRANSPORT PROJECTS TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORT SERVICES TRANSPORT SYSTEM TRAVEL TIME TRAVEL TIMES TRAVELLERS TRUCKS VALUE OF TIME VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OWNERSHIP VEHICLES WALKING WALKING TIME Mackie, Peter Nellthorp, John Laird, James Demand Forecasting Errors
relation	Transport Notes Series; No. TRN 12
description	Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand forecasts (Section 1). Following that introductory section the error types are described in more detail: measurement error (Section 2), model specification error (Section 3) and External or Exogenous Errors (Section 4). The final section presents a discussion on how to manage demand forecasting errors (Section 5).
format	Publications & Research :: Brief
author	Mackie, Peter Nellthorp, John Laird, James
author_facet	Mackie, Peter Nellthorp, John Laird, James
author_sort	Mackie, Peter
title	Demand Forecasting Errors
title_short	Demand Forecasting Errors
title_full	Demand Forecasting Errors
title_fullStr	Demand Forecasting Errors
title_full_unstemmed	Demand Forecasting Errors
title_sort	demand forecasting errors
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2012
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6376813/demand-forecasting-errors http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11797
_version_	1764418029343473664

Demand Forecasting Errors

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