What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries?
This note summarizes recent projections on the longer-term effects of the East Asia's financial crisis, and the significant effect already felt in developing countries. Five main points are examined, as follows: 1) though trade will drive the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Brief |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/1998/03/438768/effect-east-asias-crisis-developing-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11558 |
| id |
okr-10986-11558 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| spelling |
okr-10986-115582021-06-14T11:03:58Z What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries? Dadush, Uri Lynn, Robert Riordan, Mick Dasgupta, Dipak Johannes, Ronald GLOBAL MARKET ECONOMIC POLICY FINANCIAL CRISES GLOBAL RESOURCE FLOWS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ECONOMIC INDICATORS PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS TRADE MONETARY POLICY FISCAL POLICY OIL CRISES CAPITAL MARKETS BANK LENDING BANKRUPTCY BENCHMARK BONDS CAPITAL INFLOWS CENTRAL BANKS CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT DEBT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DOMESTIC DEMAND DROUGHT DURABLE GOODS EAST AFRICA ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC POLICY EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT VOLUMES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCE FINANCIAL CRISIS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT GDP GLOBAL SHOCKS GROWTH RATE IMPORTS INCOME INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES INVESTMENT FLOWS METALS MONETARY POLICIES MULTIPLIER EFFECT MULTIPLIERS NORTH AFRICA OIL OIL EXPORTERS OIL IMPORTERS OIL PRICES POINT REAL EXCHANGE RATE TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS TIMBER TRADE LOSSES TRADE VOLUMES TRANSITION ECONOMIES UNEMPLOYMENT VALUE ADDED WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE This note summarizes recent projections on the longer-term effects of the East Asia's financial crisis, and the significant effect already felt in developing countries. Five main points are examined, as follows: 1) though trade will drive the recovery, adjustment will be deep and protracted, in the region, mostly in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand; 2) developing countries will be mostly affected, since reductions in growth are estimated to double due to high trade multipliers, terms of trade movements, as well as tight monetary and fiscal policies in those countries relying on private capital flows; 3) because of lower oil prices, oil importing countries stand to lose the most, with Latin America, the Middle East, and North and Sub-Saharan Africa the hardest hit; 4) the crisis will bear a significant effect on the world economy, though not nearly as damaging as the 1973 and 1978 oil shocks; and 5) increased risks, such as a spillover or cutoff in credit, for developing countries are estimated, though predicted to be manageable. 2012-08-13T15:23:30Z 2012-08-13T15:23:30Z 1998-03 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/1998/03/438768/effect-east-asias-crisis-developing-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11558 English PREM Notes; No. 1 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Brief Publications & Research East Asia and Pacific Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Korea, Republic of |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English |
| topic |
GLOBAL MARKET ECONOMIC POLICY FINANCIAL CRISES GLOBAL RESOURCE FLOWS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ECONOMIC INDICATORS PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS TRADE MONETARY POLICY FISCAL POLICY OIL CRISES CAPITAL MARKETS BANK LENDING BANKRUPTCY BENCHMARK BONDS CAPITAL INFLOWS CENTRAL BANKS CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT DEBT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DOMESTIC DEMAND DROUGHT DURABLE GOODS EAST AFRICA ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC POLICY EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT VOLUMES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCE FINANCIAL CRISIS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT GDP GLOBAL SHOCKS GROWTH RATE IMPORTS INCOME INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES INVESTMENT FLOWS METALS MONETARY POLICIES MULTIPLIER EFFECT MULTIPLIERS NORTH AFRICA OIL OIL EXPORTERS OIL IMPORTERS OIL PRICES POINT REAL EXCHANGE RATE TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS TIMBER TRADE LOSSES TRADE VOLUMES TRANSITION ECONOMIES UNEMPLOYMENT VALUE ADDED WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE |
| spellingShingle |
GLOBAL MARKET ECONOMIC POLICY FINANCIAL CRISES GLOBAL RESOURCE FLOWS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ECONOMIC INDICATORS PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS TRADE MONETARY POLICY FISCAL POLICY OIL CRISES CAPITAL MARKETS BANK LENDING BANKRUPTCY BENCHMARK BONDS CAPITAL INFLOWS CENTRAL BANKS CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT DEBT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DOMESTIC DEMAND DROUGHT DURABLE GOODS EAST AFRICA ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC POLICY EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORT VOLUMES EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCE FINANCIAL CRISIS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT GDP GLOBAL SHOCKS GROWTH RATE IMPORTS INCOME INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES INVESTMENT FLOWS METALS MONETARY POLICIES MULTIPLIER EFFECT MULTIPLIERS NORTH AFRICA OIL OIL EXPORTERS OIL IMPORTERS OIL PRICES POINT REAL EXCHANGE RATE TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS TIMBER TRADE LOSSES TRADE VOLUMES TRANSITION ECONOMIES UNEMPLOYMENT VALUE ADDED WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE Dadush, Uri Lynn, Robert Riordan, Mick Dasgupta, Dipak Johannes, Ronald What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries? |
| geographic_facet |
East Asia and Pacific Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Korea, Republic of |
| relation |
PREM Notes; No. 1 |
| description |
This note summarizes recent projections
on the longer-term effects of the East Asia's financial
crisis, and the significant effect already felt in
developing countries. Five main points are examined, as
follows: 1) though trade will drive the recovery, adjustment
will be deep and protracted, in the region, mostly in
Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand; 2)
developing countries will be mostly affected, since
reductions in growth are estimated to double due to high
trade multipliers, terms of trade movements, as well as
tight monetary and fiscal policies in those countries
relying on private capital flows; 3) because of lower oil
prices, oil importing countries stand to lose the most, with
Latin America, the Middle East, and North and Sub-Saharan
Africa the hardest hit; 4) the crisis will bear a
significant effect on the world economy, though not nearly
as damaging as the 1973 and 1978 oil shocks; and 5)
increased risks, such as a spillover or cutoff in credit,
for developing countries are estimated, though predicted to
be manageable. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Brief |
| author |
Dadush, Uri Lynn, Robert Riordan, Mick Dasgupta, Dipak Johannes, Ronald |
| author_facet |
Dadush, Uri Lynn, Robert Riordan, Mick Dasgupta, Dipak Johannes, Ronald |
| author_sort |
Dadush, Uri |
| title |
What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries? |
| title_short |
What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries? |
| title_full |
What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries? |
| title_fullStr |
What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries? |
| title_sort |
what effect will east asia's crisis have on developing countries? |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/1998/03/438768/effect-east-asias-crisis-developing-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11558 |
| _version_ |
1764417169073897472 |