Building an early warning towards the resilience of Islamic Banking in Indonesia
An early warning system (EWS) is widely used as surveillance mechanism for preserving financial system stability. This paper addresses the issue of namely which macroeconomic indicators that are capable of signaling adverse shocks towards the resilience of Islamic banking in Indonesia. This resea...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Faculty Of Shariah and Law Syarif Syarif Hidayatullah State University Jakarta
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/62229/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/62229/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/62229/1/195044-EN-building-an-early-warning-towards-the-re.pdf |
| Summary: | An early warning system (EWS) is widely used as surveillance
mechanism for preserving financial system stability. This paper addresses the issue of
namely which macroeconomic indicators that are capable of signaling adverse shocks
towards the resilience of Islamic banking in Indonesia. This research uses an extraction
signal approach as EWS mechanism. The results suggest that there are several indicators
that (1) IBRI, which is composed from standardized deposit and financing, is able to
figure out the resilience of Islamic banking. The resilience of Islamic banking was
considered stable since the index was moving below the normal line during the global
financial crises, and (2) Some selected macro financial indicators, M2/reserve (M2res),
credit growth (CG), real effective exchange rate (REER), and inflation rate (INF)
empirically show low noise to signal ratio. It means that these four variables are capable
of signaling vulnerabilities due to adverse external shocks. The paper recommends that
the resilience of Islamic banking needs to be supported by the resilience in the real sector.
Sistem deteksi dini banyak digunakan sebagai mekanisme surveillans
guna menjaga stabilitas sistem keuangan. Tulisan ini membahas isu terkait dengan
manakah indikator makroekonomi yang mampu mengeluarkan sinyal karena
tekanan eksternal kaitannya terhadap ketahanan perbankan syariah. Tulisan ini
menggunakan pendekatan ekstraksi sinyal sebagai mekanisme sistem deteksi dini.
Hasil penelitian ini menyarankan bahwa beberapa indikator, yaitu pertama, IBRI
yang terdiri dari simpanan dan pembiayaan yang sudah distandarisasi, mampu
menggambarkan tingkat ketahanan perbankan Syariah yang bervariasi. Pada tahun
2004, tingkat ketahanan perbankan Syariah menurun, namun secara bertahap
membaik dan stable hingga tahun 2016. Tingkat ketahanan perbankan Syariah
menunjukkan arah yang stabil karena IBRI bergerak dibawah garis hijau selama
krisis global. Kedua, beberapa indikator makro terpilih, yaitu M2/reserve (M2res),
pertumbuhan kredit (CG), real effective exchange rate (REER), dan tingkat inflasi
(INF), secara empiris menunjukkan ratio signal to noise yang rendah. Ini berarti
indikator terpilih tersebut mampu menjadi indikator utama dalam mengeluarkan
sinyal kerentanan karena adanya tekanan eksternal. Akhirnya, tulisan ini memberikan
rekomendasi bahwa ketahanan perbankan Syariah perlu didukung oleh
ketahanan di sektor riil mengingat basis usahanya adalah pengembangan sektor riil. |
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